Texas has been kicked out of the number 1 spot on U-Haul’s annual growth report for the first time since 2015.
Since 2015, Texas has been sitting in the no. 1 spot on U-Haul’s annual Growth State Report. They take this measurement by analyzing the amount of U-Haul trucks that leave and enter each state in the US (excluding Hawaii) each year. In the past few years, Texas has had around 50.4% of the one-way U-Haul traffic in the state result from arrivals. Now, Florida has passed that arrival percentage with 50.6% of its one-way traffic coming into the state.
How accurate is this measure?
Although Florida may have the most relative U-Haul traffic coming into the state, it was not the fastest-growing state in the country. In fact, Florida ranked 9th overall in the country, with a growth rate of 1.1% since 2018.
Texas on the other hand, ranked 5th, with a population growth of 1.28% over the last year. The number one spot actually belongs to Idaho, which had a growth rate of 2.09% in 2019.
On the U-Haul Growth State Report, Idaho only ranked no. 11 in the overall measurement. Why is this? Although we cannot know for certain, there are a couple of factors that could contribute to this discrepancy.
Why are the measurements different?
One factor that definitely adds to the differences between the U-Haul’s growth rate and the US Census growth rate based on population is that the U-Haul only measures people who move into the state while the US Census also measures birth rates. For that matter, U-Haul also only measures the proportion of people moving into a state on their own (using a U-Haul truck instead of hiring a moving company).
It makes sense then why a state such as Florida, with an older population than most states, has a greater amount of people moving into the state yet not enough births within the state to make up the growth gap of other states.
All-in-all, although the U-Haul’s measurement does not necessarily give an accurate look at state growth rates, it is a great indicator of where the US population is expected to start migrating towards in the upcoming years.
What does this mean for population growth in Texas?
Although the overall population of the United States has been slowing since 2015 according to the US Census, Texas is still showing the population growing at higher rates higher than the national average.
Although the state may no longer rank no. 1 on U-Haul’s report, Texas is still sitting high on the list at no. 2. With high population growth as reported from the Census and an indication of movement continuing towards the state, it seems that Texas is going to continue growing in the coming years.
If you are wanting to see what Texas has to offer you, then be sure to check out some of our listings in the Texas Hill Country.